Red List Status
VU - Vulnerable, D2 (IUCN version 3.1)

Red List Assessment

Red List Status

Is the reassessment subject to the 5-year rule? (Not specified)

Assessment Information

Date of Assessment: 2023-01-08

Reviewed? (Not specified)

Assessor(s): Braun, K.

Reviewer(s): (Not specified)

Contributor(s): (Not specified)

Facilitators/Compilers: (Not specified)

Institution(s): (Not specified)

Acknowledgements: (Not specified)

Regions: Global

Regional Expert Questions: (Not specified)

Assessment Rationale

Cineraria ngwenyensis has an extremely limited distribution, its known population having declined drastically due to open cast iron ore mining from 1964 to 1977. The surviving population has a distribution with an estimated extent of occurrence of less than its area of occupancy of 4 km². Based on this it has been assessed as Vulnerable under Criterion D2. There is a potential threat from resumption of mining activities in the area which could result in this species becoming Critically Endangered or even Extinct within a short period of time if the mining activities cause loss of habitat for this species.
Date last seen: 1995

Reasons for Change

Reason(s) for Change in Red List Category from the Previous Assessment: (Not specified)

Red List Index

Red List Index: (Not specified)

Distribution

Geographic Range

This plant has only been found in the Ngwenya Mine area within Malolotja Nature Reserve, in Eswatini. There are records from five localities, but two of these were from an area which was removed during the operation of Ngwenya Mine, and therefore no longer exist.

Area of Occupancy (AOO)

Estimated area of occupancy (AOO) - in km2	Justification
4	This species is known from three remaining localities, the other two having been removed during the operation of Ngwenya Iron Ore Mine. The estimated area of occupancy was calculated using GeoCAT (Bachman et al. 2011), with the standard 2x2 km grid cell being applied.

Continuing decline in area of occupancy (AOO): (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations in area of occupancy (AOO): (Not specified)

Extent of Occurrence (EOO)

Estimated extent of occurrence (EOO)- in km2	EOO estimate calculated from Minimum Convex Polygon	Justification
4	true	This species is known from three remaining localities, the other two having been removed during the operation of Ngwenya Iron Ore Mine. The estimated extent of occurrence calculated using GeoCAT (Bachman et al. 2011) was 0.111 km2, less than the area of occupancy, so the higher figure has been used here.

Continuing decline in extent of occurrence (EOO): (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations in extent of occurrence (EOO): (Not specified)

Locations Information

Number of Locations	Justification
3	This species is known from three remaining localities, the other two having been removed during the operation of Ngwenya Iron Ore Mine. Further mining activities could affect any or all of these localities, so they have been considered to be 3 locations.

Continuing decline in number of locations: (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations in the number of locations: (Not specified)

Very restricted AOO or number of locations (triggers VU D2)

Very restricted in area of occupancy (AOO) and/or # of locations	Justification
Yes	This species is known from three remaining localities, the other two having been removed during the operation of Ngwenya Iron Ore Mine. Further mining activities could affect any or all of these localities.

Elevation / Depth / Depth Zones

Elevation Lower Limit (in metres above sea level): 1515

Elevation Upper Limit (in metres above sea level): 1680

Depth Lower Limit (in metres below sea level): (Not specified)

Depth Upper Limit (in metres below sea level): (Not specified)

Depth Zone: (Not specified)

Map Status

Map Status: (Not specified)

Biogeographic Realms

Biogeographic Realm: Afrotropical

Country	Presence	Origin	Formerly Bred	Seasonality
Eswatini	Extant	Native	-	Resident

Population

According to Cron et. al. (2006), this species is very rare and restricted in distribution with small populations, currently known from three localities.

Population Information

Current Population Trend: Unknown

Number of mature individuals (=population size): (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations? (in # of mature individuals): (Not specified)

Severely fragmented? (Not specified)

Continuing decline in mature individuals? (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 1 generation or 3 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 2 generations or 5 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations in the number of subpopulations: (Not specified)

Continuing decline in number of subpopulations: (Not specified)

All individuals in one subpopulation: (Not specified)

Number of mature individuals in largest subpopulation: (Not specified)

Number of Subpopulations: (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Past

Percent Change in past: (Not specified)

Past Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction reversible? (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction understood? (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction ceased? (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Future

Percent Change in future: (Not specified)

Future Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Ongoing

Both: Percent Change over any 10 year or 3 generation period, whichever is longer, and must include both past and future, future can't go beyond 100 years: (Not specified)

Both Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction reversible? (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction understood? (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction ceased? (Not specified)

Quantitative Analysis

Probability of extinction in the wild within 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer, maximum 100 years: (Not specified)

Probability of extinction in the wild within 5 generations or 20 years, whichever is longer, maximum 100 years: (Not specified)

Probability of extinction in the wild within 100 years: (Not specified)

Habitats and Ecology

The species is found in the grassland biome,vegetation type KaNgwane Montane Grassland (Gm16) (Mucina et. al. 2018). According to Cron et. al. (2006), this species is found in the shade of rocks on mountain north-west facing spurs, near the summit of quartzite ridges.

IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme

Habitat	Season	Suitability	Major Importance?
4.7. Grassland -> Grassland - Subtropical/Tropical High Altitude	-	Suitable	-

Continuing Decline in Habitat

Continuing decline in area, extent and/or quality of habitat?	Qualifier	Justification
Unknown	-	There is a possibility of further mining activities in the area, which could affect this species. However, if this species is restricted to the quartzite spurs, it might not be affected.

Life History

Generation Length: (Not specified)

Age at maturity: female or unspecified: (Not specified)

Age at Maturity: Male: (Not specified)

Size at Maturity (in cms): Female: (Not specified)

Size at Maturity (in cms): Male: (Not specified)

Longevity: (Not specified)

Average Reproductive Age: (Not specified)

Maximum Size (in cms): (Not specified)

Size at Birth (in cms): (Not specified)

Gestation Time: (Not specified)

Reproductive Periodicity: (Not specified)

Average Annual Fecundity or Litter Size: (Not specified)

Annual Rate of Population Increase: (Not specified)

Natural Mortality: (Not specified)

Does the species lay eggs? (Not specified)

Does the species give birth to live young: (Not specified)

Does the species exhibit parthenogenesis: (Not specified)

Does the species have a free-living larval stage? (Not specified)

Does the species require water for breeding? (Not specified)

Movement Patterns

Movement Patterns: (Not specified)

Congregatory: (Not specified)

Systems

System: Terrestrial

Plant / Fungi Specific

Wild relative of a crop? (Not specified)

Plant and Fungal Growth Forms: (Not specified)

Use and Trade

General Use and Trade Information

Species not utilized: (Not specified)

No use/trade information for this species: true

General notes regarding trade and use of this species: (Not specified)

Local Livelihood: (Not specified)

National Commercial Value: (Not specified)

International Commercial Value: (Not specified)

End Use: (Not specified)

Is there harvest from captive/cultivated sources of this species? (Not specified)

Trend in level of total offtake from wild sources: (Not specified)

Trend in level of total offtake from domesticated sources: (Not specified)

Harvest Trend Comments: (Not specified)

Non- Consumptive Use

Non-consumptive use of the species? (Not specified)

Explanation of non-consumptive use: (Not specified)

Livelihoods

Livelihoods: (Not specified)

Threat	Timing	Scope	Severity
3.2. Energy production & mining -> Mining & quarrying	Past, Likely to Return	Whole (>90%)	Very Rapid Declines

Conservation

The entire distribution of this species falls within Malolotja Nature Reserve. However, in spite of this being a proclaimed protected area, it is possible that mining activities maybe resumed in the area, potentially affecting the remaining populations of this species. The plant is found on quartzite spurs, so it is possible that the mining activities might not directly be aimed at these areas, but there could be habitat loss due to mining infrastructure being established.

Conservation Actions In- Place

Action Recovery Plan	Note
No	-

Systematic monitoring scheme	Note
No	-

Conservation sites identified	Note
Yes, over entire range	This species is only known from within Malolotja Nature Reserve.

Occur in at least one PA	Note
Yes	This species is only known from within Malolotja Nature Reserve.

Percentage of population protected by PAs (0-100)	Note
91-100	-

Area based regional management plan	Note
No	-

Invasive species control or prevention	Note
Unknown	There are some measures carried out within Malolotja to control invasive species, but it is not known whether these have included the area where this species is found.

Harvest management plan	Note
No	-

Successfully reintroduced or introduced benignly	Note
No	-

Subject to ex-situ conservation	Note
No	-

Subject to recent education and awareness programmes	Note
No	-

Included in international legislation	Note
No	-

Subject to any international management/trade controls	Note
No	-

Important Conservation Actions Needed

Conservation Actions	Note
3.4.2. Species management -> Ex-situ conservation -> Genome resource bank	Collection of material for ex-situ conservation would enhance the probability of survival of this species.

Research Needed

Research	Note
1.2. Research -> Population size, distribution & trends	More research is required into the population sizes and trends for this species, and more fieldwork to determine if this plant is found in any additional localities.
1.3. Research -> Life history & ecology	Very little is currently known of the life history and ecology of this species. More information would assist with planning of any conservation measures for this plant.

Cineraria ngwenyensis - Cron