Red List Status
LC - Least Concern, (IUCN version 3.1)

Red List Assessment

Red List Status

Is the reassessment subject to the 5-year rule? (Not specified)

Assessment Information

Date of Assessment: 2023-01-26

Reviewed? (Not specified)

Assessor(s): Braun, K.

Reviewer(s): (Not specified)

Contributor(s): (Not specified)

Facilitators/Compilers: (Not specified)

Institution(s): (Not specified)

Acknowledgements: (Not specified)

Regions: Global

Regional Expert Questions: (Not specified)

Assessment Rationale

Senecio mbuluzensis has a restricted distribution, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 8,360.439 km² and an area of occupancy of 80 km². Most of its range is subject to ongoing overgrazing by livestock and uncontrolled burning and smallholder agriculture, but at the time of assessment there is no evidence of a decline in the population of this species due to habitat loss. Fieldwork is required to determine whether there are any changes in the population status for this species. Based on this, it has been assessed as Least Concern.
Date last seen: 2011

Reasons for Change

Reason(s) for Change in Red List Category from the Previous Assessment: (Not specified)

Red List Index

Red List Index: (Not specified)

Distribution

Geographic Range

This species has been recorded from KwaZulu Natal, near Ngome, through the Eswatini upper middleveld and highveld to Mpumalanga near Mbombela.

Area of Occupancy (AOO)

Estimated area of occupancy (AOO) - in km2	Justification
80	The estimated area of occupancy is based on 26 geo-referenced records for this species, calculated using GeoCAT (Bachman et al. 2011), with the standard 2x2 km grid cell being applied.

Continuing decline in area of occupancy (AOO)	Qualifier	Justification
Unknown	-	There is currently no information on any decline in area of occupancy for this species.

Extreme fluctuations in area of occupancy (AOO): (Not specified)

Extent of Occurrence (EOO)

Estimated extent of occurrence (EOO)- in km2	EOO estimate calculated from Minimum Convex Polygon	Justification
8360.439	true	The estimated extent of occurrence has been based on 26 geo-referenced records for this species, calculated using GeoCAT (Bachman et al. 2011).

Continuing decline in extent of occurrence (EOO)	Qualifier	Justification
Unknown	-	There is currently no information on changes in extent of occurrence for this species.

Extreme fluctuations in extent of occurrence (EOO): (Not specified)

Locations Information

Number of Locations	Justification
17	The number of locations has been estimated based on 26 records for this species.

Continuing decline in number of locations	Qualifier	Justification
Unknown	-	There is currently no information on a decline in number of locations for this species.

Extreme fluctuations in the number of locations: (Not specified)

Very restricted AOO or number of locations (triggers VU D2)

Very restricted in area of occupancy (AOO) and/or # of locations	Justification
No	This species has an estimated area of occupancy of at least 80 km2, and therefore cannot be considered to be very restricted.

Elevation / Depth / Depth Zones

Elevation Lower Limit (in metres above sea level): 645

Elevation Upper Limit (in metres above sea level): 1575

Depth Lower Limit (in metres below sea level): (Not specified)

Depth Upper Limit (in metres below sea level): (Not specified)

Depth Zone: (Not specified)

Map Status

Map Status: (Not specified)

Biogeographic Realms

Biogeographic Realm: Afrotropical

Country	Presence	Origin	Formerly Bred	Seasonality
Eswatini	Extant	Native	-	Resident
South Africa -> KwaZulu-Natal	Extant	Native	-	Resident
South Africa -> Mpumalanga	Extant	Native	-	Resident

Population

This species has a population extending from KwaZulu Natal through Eswatini to Mpumalanga. There is currently no information on population trends for this plant. For the purpose of this assessment, it has been assumed that the plant still occurs in the localities described in the older records of this species.

Population Information

Current Population Trend: (Not specified)

Number of mature individuals (=population size): (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations? (in # of mature individuals): (Not specified)

Severely fragmented? (Not specified)

Continuing decline in mature individuals? (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 1 generation or 3 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 2 generations or 5 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations in the number of subpopulations: (Not specified)

Continuing decline in number of subpopulations: (Not specified)

All individuals in one subpopulation: (Not specified)

Number of mature individuals in largest subpopulation: (Not specified)

Number of Subpopulations: (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Past

Percent Change in past: (Not specified)

Past Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction reversible? (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction understood? (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction ceased? (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Future

Percent Change in future: (Not specified)

Future Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Ongoing

Both: Percent Change over any 10 year or 3 generation period, whichever is longer, and must include both past and future, future can't go beyond 100 years: (Not specified)

Both Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction reversible? (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction understood? (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction ceased? (Not specified)

Quantitative Analysis

Probability of extinction in the wild within 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer, maximum 100 years: (Not specified)

Probability of extinction in the wild within 5 generations or 20 years, whichever is longer, maximum 100 years: (Not specified)

Probability of extinction in the wild within 100 years: (Not specified)

Habitats and Ecology

This species has been recorded from savanna and grassland areas in the upper middleveld and highveld areas in Eswatini, as well as areas to the north and south of the country. The records from Eswatini are in vegetation types KaNgwane Montane Grassland (Gm16) and Swaziland Sour Bushveld (SVI14), the Mpumalanga records from Barberton Montane Grassland (Gm17), Legogote Sour Bushveld (SVI9) and Granite Lowveld (SVI3), and the KwaZulu Natal records from Paulpietersburg Moist Grassland (Gm15), KwaZulu-Natal Highland Thornveld (Gs6) and Northern Zululand Mistbelt Grassland (Gs1) (Mucina et. al. 2018).

IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme

Habitat	Season	Suitability	Major Importance?
2.2. Savanna -> Savanna - Moist	-	Suitable	Yes
4.7. Grassland -> Grassland - Subtropical/Tropical High Altitude	-	Suitable	Yes

Continuing Decline in Habitat

Continuing decline in area, extent and/or quality of habitat?	Qualifier	Justification
Yes	Inferred	Most of the highveld and upper middleveld areas in Eswatini are subject to ongoing expansion of small-scale agriculture or heavy grazing and burning.

Life History

Generation Length: (Not specified)

Age at maturity: female or unspecified: (Not specified)

Age at Maturity: Male: (Not specified)

Size at Maturity (in cms): Female: (Not specified)

Size at Maturity (in cms): Male: (Not specified)

Longevity: (Not specified)

Average Reproductive Age: (Not specified)

Maximum Size (in cms): (Not specified)

Size at Birth (in cms): (Not specified)

Gestation Time: (Not specified)

Reproductive Periodicity: (Not specified)

Average Annual Fecundity or Litter Size: (Not specified)

Annual Rate of Population Increase: (Not specified)

Natural Mortality: (Not specified)

Does the species lay eggs? (Not specified)

Does the species give birth to live young: (Not specified)

Does the species exhibit parthenogenesis: (Not specified)

Does the species have a free-living larval stage? (Not specified)

Does the species require water for breeding? (Not specified)

Movement Patterns

Movement Patterns: (Not specified)

Congregatory: (Not specified)

Systems

System: Terrestrial

Plant / Fungi Specific

Wild relative of a crop? (Not specified)

Plant and Fungal Growth Forms: (Not specified)

Use and Trade

General Use and Trade Information

Species not utilized: (Not specified)

No use/trade information for this species: true

General notes regarding trade and use of this species: (Not specified)

Local Livelihood: (Not specified)

National Commercial Value: (Not specified)

International Commercial Value: (Not specified)

End Use: (Not specified)

Is there harvest from captive/cultivated sources of this species? (Not specified)

Trend in level of total offtake from wild sources: (Not specified)

Trend in level of total offtake from domesticated sources: (Not specified)

Harvest Trend Comments: (Not specified)

Non- Consumptive Use

Non-consumptive use of the species? (Not specified)

Explanation of non-consumptive use: (Not specified)

Livelihoods

Livelihoods: (Not specified)

Threats

Most of the highveld and upper middleveld areas in Eswatini are subject to ongoing expansion of small-scale agriculture or heavy grazing and burning.

Threats Classification Scheme

No past, ongoing, or future threats exist to this species. (Not specified)

The threats to this species are unknown. (Not specified)

Threat	Timing	Scope	Severity
2.1.2. Agriculture & aquaculture -> Annual & perennial non-timber crops -> Small-holder farming	Ongoing	Minority (<50%)	Slow, Significant Declines
2.3.2. Agriculture & aquaculture -> Livestock farming & ranching -> Small-holder grazing, ranching or farming	Ongoing	Majority (50-90%)	Slow, Significant Declines

Conservation

One recorded locality for this species is within Malolotja Nature Reserve in Eswatini.

Conservation Actions In- Place

Action Recovery Plan	Note
No	-

Systematic monitoring scheme	Note
No	-

Conservation sites identified	Note
No	-

Occur in at least one PA	Note
Yes	This species has been recorded from within Malolotja Nature Reserve in Eswatini.

Percentage of population protected by PAs (0-100)	Note
1-10	-

Area based regional management plan	Note
No	-

Invasive species control or prevention	Note
No	-

Harvest management plan	Note
No	-

Successfully reintroduced or introduced benignly	Note
No	-

Subject to ex-situ conservation	Note
No	-

Subject to recent education and awareness programmes	Note
No	-

Included in international legislation	Note
No	-

Subject to any international management/trade controls	Note
No	-

Important Conservation Actions Needed

Conservation Actions	Note
1.2. Land/water protection -> Resource & habitat protection	As most of the known range for this species falls outside existing protected areas, more habitat protection would be beneficial to the survival of this species.

Research Needed

Research	Note
1.2. Research -> Population size, distribution & trends	Although this species has been recorded from a number of localities, many of the records are from a number of years ago, so fieldwork to determine whether the plant still exists at these localities as well as information on any trends would be useful.

Senecio mbuluzensis - Compton