Red List Status
VU - Vulnerable, B1ab(iii)+2ab(iii) (IUCN version 3.1)

Red List Assessment

Red List Status

Is the reassessment subject to the 5-year rule? (Not specified)

Assessment Information

Date of Assessment: 2023-01-26

Reviewed? (Not specified)

Assessor(s): Braun, K.

Reviewer(s): (Not specified)

Contributor(s): (Not specified)

Facilitators/Compilers: (Not specified)

Institution(s): (Not specified)

Acknowledgements: (Not specified)

Regions: Global

Regional Expert Questions: (Not specified)

Assessment Rationale

Senecio mlilwanensis has a very restricted distribution, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 206.392 km², and an area of occupancy of 32 km². There are ongoing threats of habitat degradation due to livestock grazing, and of urban development for part of its range. Based on this, it has been assessed as Vulnerable, under Criteria B1 and B2.
Date last seen: 2023

Reasons for Change

Reason(s) for Change in Red List Category from the Previous Assessment: (Not specified)

Red List Index

Red List Index: (Not specified)

Distribution

Geographic Range

This species has been found in about ten localities, in the Eswatini highveld and upper middleveld areas.

Area of Occupancy (AOO)

Estimated area of occupancy (AOO) - in km2	Justification
32	The estimated area of occupancy has been based on 13 records accounting for about 10 localities, calculated using GeoCAT (Bachman et al. 2011), with the standard 2x2 km grid cell being applied.

Continuing decline in area of occupancy (AOO)	Qualifier	Justification
Unknown	-	About half the records are from more than 25 years ago, and the presence of this species at those localities has not been confirmed.

Extreme fluctuations in area of occupancy (AOO): (Not specified)

Extent of Occurrence (EOO)

Estimated extent of occurrence (EOO)- in km2	EOO estimate calculated from Minimum Convex Polygon	Justification
206.392	true	The estimated extent of occurrence has been based on 13 records of this species, calculated using GeoCAT (Bachman et al. 2011).

Continuing decline in extent of occurrence (EOO)	Qualifier	Justification
Unknown	-	About half the records are from more than 25 years ago, and the presence of this species at those localities has not been confirmed.

Extreme fluctuations in extent of occurrence (EOO): (Not specified)

Locations Information

Number of Locations	Justification
10	The number of locations is an estimate, due to older herbarium records often not having precise locality information.

Continuing decline in number of locations	Qualifier	Justification
Unknown	-	About half the records are from more than 25 years ago, and the presence of this species at those localities has not been confirmed.

Extreme fluctuations in the number of locations: (Not specified)

Very restricted AOO or number of locations (triggers VU D2)

Very restricted in area of occupancy (AOO) and/or # of locations	Justification
No	The estimated area of occupancy is 32 km2, from about 10 localities.

Elevation / Depth / Depth Zones

Elevation Lower Limit (in metres above sea level): 750

Elevation Upper Limit (in metres above sea level): 1180

Depth Lower Limit (in metres below sea level): (Not specified)

Depth Upper Limit (in metres below sea level): (Not specified)

Depth Zone: (Not specified)

Map Status

Map Status: (Not specified)

Biogeographic Realms

Biogeographic Realm: Afrotropical

Country	Presence	Origin	Formerly Bred	Seasonality
Eswatini	Extant	Native	-	Resident

Population

No population surveys have been carried out for this species. In one area where it has been observed, it was recorded to be locally frequent. For the purposes of this assessment, localities from older records have been included on the basis of continued existence of appropriate habitat in these ares.

Population Information

Current Population Trend: Unknown

Number of mature individuals (=population size): (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations? (in # of mature individuals): (Not specified)

Severely fragmented? (Not specified)

Continuing decline in mature individuals? (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 1 generation or 3 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 2 generations or 5 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Continuing decline % in mature individuals within 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer (up to max. of 100 years in the future): (Not specified)

Extreme fluctuations in the number of subpopulations: (Not specified)

Continuing decline in number of subpopulations: (Not specified)

All individuals in one subpopulation: (Not specified)

Number of mature individuals in largest subpopulation: (Not specified)

Number of Subpopulations: (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Past

Percent Change in past: (Not specified)

Past Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction reversible? (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction understood? (Not specified)

Causes of past reduction ceased? (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Future

Percent Change in future: (Not specified)

Future Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Population Reduction - Ongoing

Both: Percent Change over any 10 year or 3 generation period, whichever is longer, and must include both past and future, future can't go beyond 100 years: (Not specified)

Both Population Reduction Basis: (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction reversible? (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction understood? (Not specified)

Causes of both (past and future) reduction ceased? (Not specified)

Quantitative Analysis

Probability of extinction in the wild within 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer, maximum 100 years: (Not specified)

Probability of extinction in the wild within 5 generations or 20 years, whichever is longer, maximum 100 years: (Not specified)

Probability of extinction in the wild within 100 years: (Not specified)

Habitats and Ecology

This species has been found in rocky areas in grassland and savanna, the vegetation types estimated from the localities being KaNgwane Montane Grassland (Gm16), Barberton Montane Grassland (Gm17) and Swaziland Sour Bushveld (SVI14) (Mucina et. al. 2018). The localities falling within the savanna vegetation type are primarily on the edges of this vegetation type, adjacent to the KaNgwane Montane Grassland areas.
Within one locality, this plant is found as scattered individual plants, in rocky grassland with occasional trees. The area has been subject to frequent burning, which does not appear to have had any major impact on the sub-population.

IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme

Habitat	Season	Suitability	Major Importance?
2.2. Savanna -> Savanna - Moist	-	Suitable	-
4.7. Grassland -> Grassland - Subtropical/Tropical High Altitude	-	Suitable	-

Continuing Decline in Habitat

Continuing decline in area, extent and/or quality of habitat?	Qualifier	Justification
Yes	Inferred	The distribution of this species includes areas which are currently subject not only to overgrazing but also to spreading urban development.

Life History

Generation Length: (Not specified)

Age at maturity: female or unspecified: (Not specified)

Age at Maturity: Male: (Not specified)

Size at Maturity (in cms): Female: (Not specified)

Size at Maturity (in cms): Male: (Not specified)

Longevity: (Not specified)

Average Reproductive Age: (Not specified)

Maximum Size (in cms): (Not specified)

Size at Birth (in cms): (Not specified)

Gestation Time: (Not specified)

Reproductive Periodicity: (Not specified)

Average Annual Fecundity or Litter Size: (Not specified)

Annual Rate of Population Increase: (Not specified)

Natural Mortality: (Not specified)

Does the species lay eggs? (Not specified)

Does the species give birth to live young: (Not specified)

Does the species exhibit parthenogenesis: (Not specified)

Does the species have a free-living larval stage? (Not specified)

Does the species require water for breeding? (Not specified)

Movement Patterns

Movement Patterns: (Not specified)

Congregatory: (Not specified)

Systems

System: Terrestrial

Plant / Fungi Specific

Wild relative of a crop? (Not specified)

Plant and Fungal Growth Forms: (Not specified)

Use and Trade

General Use and Trade Information

Species not utilized: (Not specified)

No use/trade information for this species: true

General notes regarding trade and use of this species: (Not specified)

Local Livelihood: (Not specified)

National Commercial Value: (Not specified)

International Commercial Value: (Not specified)

End Use: (Not specified)

Is there harvest from captive/cultivated sources of this species? (Not specified)

Trend in level of total offtake from wild sources: (Not specified)

Trend in level of total offtake from domesticated sources: (Not specified)

Harvest Trend Comments: (Not specified)

Non- Consumptive Use

Non-consumptive use of the species? (Not specified)

Explanation of non-consumptive use: (Not specified)

Livelihoods

Livelihoods: (Not specified)

Threat	Timing	Scope	Severity
1.1. Residential & commercial development -> Housing & urban areas	Ongoing	Minority (<50%)	Rapid Declines
2.3.2. Agriculture & aquaculture -> Livestock farming & ranching -> Small-holder grazing, ranching or farming	Ongoing	Majority (50-90%)	Slow, Significant Declines

Conservation

One locality, where the type specimen was collected is within Mlilwane Game Sanctuary. This area, however, is not managed for plant conservation.

Conservation Actions In- Place

Action Recovery Plan	Note
No	-

Systematic monitoring scheme	Note
No	-

Conservation sites identified	Note
No	-

Occur in at least one PA	Note
Yes	This species was recorded from within Mlilwane Game Sanctuary, but this area is not managed for plant conservation.

Percentage of population protected by PAs (0-100)	Note
1-10	-

Area based regional management plan	Note
No	-

Invasive species control or prevention	Note
No	-

Harvest management plan	Note
No	-

Successfully reintroduced or introduced benignly	Note
No	-

Subject to ex-situ conservation	Note
No	-

Subject to recent education and awareness programmes	Note
No	-

Included in international legislation	Note
No	-

Subject to any international management/trade controls	Note
No	-

Important Conservation Actions Needed

Conservation Actions	Note
1.2. Land/water protection -> Resource & habitat protection	There is a need for protection of at least a portion of the population of this species.
3.4.2. Species management -> Ex-situ conservation -> Genome resource bank	No collection of material for ex-situ conservation has been carried out yet for this plant.

Research Needed

Research	Note
1.2. Research -> Population size, distribution & trends	The majority of the localities for this species have not been subject to any population surveys, there is a need for more information on population size and trends. It would also be desirable for localities from older records to be revisited to confirm the presence of this species.
1.3. Research -> Life history & ecology	More information would be required on this plant's life history and ecology for planning conservation actions.
1.5. Research -> Threats	Research into the impact of grazing on this species is required to determine whether this is having an ongoing impact.

Senecio mlilwanensis - Compton